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Citigroup's Mexican subsidiary, CitiBanamex, has cut Mexico's economic growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.8% for 2017 in light of Donald Trump's victory in yesterday's presidential elections.
According to an analysis report released by CitiBanamex, Trump's victor has cast uncertainty over how his protectionist views may directly affect foreign investment in Mexico and its manufacturing sector, which greatly depends on its neighbor to the north.
However, there was a bit of reassuring news in the report, as they said that increased tariffs on Mexican imports may be offset by the depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, also a result of Trump's win.
“We're in completely uncharted territory and international markets' reaction to Trump's victory is difficult to compare with other scenarios of risk aversion,” said CitiBanamex's report.
The report also notes that despite being controversial and politically damaging to its president, Mexico was the only country in the world that reached out to Trump in an act of “traditional diplomacy.”
“Immigration and trade are areas in which Mexican authorities will have to get very creative in view of a scenario that will change under a Trump presidency.
”Transforming NAFTA into a customs union and/or stricter immigration control on Mexico's side of the border are just some examples of how Mexico can manage to remain “inside”, and not outside, of a more protectionist U.S.," the report concluded.
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