This phase of the polling dynamic is not yet particularly revealing. We will have to wait another six weeks or so to measure the real impact of media advertising. However, the current results should give pause to everyone who spends public funds (and private funds) on electronic media ads. There is no evidence of a "bounce" for Calderón (far and away the biggest spender, even if we do not count the Presidencia media backup). In the meantime, we can follow the handicappers and look at the secondary information, i.e. the other dynamics that may illuminate poll results.

Who has the initiative and is setting the agenda?

A reading of the polling data in general tends to show that AMLO has the initiative on campaign issues and sets a significant part of the key agenda. For example, Mexico has an aging population, so pensions and welfare support are critically important. The pensions for ex-presidents are a source of frustration to people concerned over traditional inequality of treatment between the political elite and ordinary persons. AMLO took the lead in developing old age and other pensions, and has long argued against the ex-presidential benefits. This is hardly a radical position; there is more than a little of Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) in AMLO. Roberto Madrazo, candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and Calderón have now both joined AMLO in opposing the presidential pensions, and in offering welfare-type projects and guarantees.

What is in the air, change or continuity?

The "back story" of nearly every election in an electoral democracy is whether to throw the rascals out, or to keep with what we know for a bit more. Mexico, now in the age of a transition, is no exception. Further, change or continuity is not a blanket category. Since 1997, many Mexican voters have been splitting their ballots, voting for one party at the national level, and another at the state or local level. Madrazo has a difficult position in that for many voters he does not represent either change or continuity, Calderón is trying hard to represent both change and continuity. AMLO is better positioned to represent change, at least at the national level.

Is the famous "voto útil" (pragmatic vote) of 2000 going to impact the race?

The pragmatic vote of 2000 did not appear in the polls until the early spring of the campaign when it was clear that Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the PRD did not have a chance of coming up. Sometime around the Easter holidays, the current race may settle into a fight for first place between two candidates, with a third candidate increasingly trailing. When that happens, the pragmatic vote dynamic will appear. The pragmatic vote in Mexico has tended to be a vote for change.

How do we explain the emergence of a "critical vote" in support of AMLO?

At the level of public culture, there is an intriguing phenomenon of intellectuals, artists and ordinary people who are openly critical of AMLO on specific issues, but who regard his candidacy as the best option. From Juan Villoro to Elena Poniatowska to Lorenzo Meyer to a long list of the illustrated, national and local, there is the emergence of this different sort of vote. It is not like U.S. intellectuals in 1968 "holding their nose" and voting for Hubert Humphrey. Our qualitative studies show it to be a kind of enthusiastic vote for AMLO without giving up specific criticisms; we cannot find an equivalent in a critical vote for Calderón or Madrazo.

Where is the independent vote?

The hard core vote of the three major parties totals less than 50 percent of the electorate. The independents are a majority, or at least the largest political "grouping." The current EL UNIVERSAL poll shows AMLO picking up 35 percent of the independent vote (down 1 percent from January), Calderón getting 19 percent of the independent vote (down 8 percent from January), and Madrazo has 11 percent of the independent vote (down 4 percent from January).

Among the independents are the voters who most often change preferences from one election to another, and the young adult voters (18 to 29 years of age). The January Consulta Mitofsky poll ran parallel to other independent polls in finding that AMLO temds tp attract more "switchers":

2000 Fox voters: now 8 perent for Madrazo, and 35 percent for AMLO;

2000 Labastida voters: now 7 percent for Calderón, 18 percent for AMLO;

The general poll results in the Consulta Mitofsky poll had AMLO 8 percent ahead of Calderón, but among first time and young adult voters, AMLO had a 15 percent advantage (42 percent to 27 percent).

The poll numbers generally confirm the persistent AMLO lead, but behind the polls are signs that the lead has breadth.

Dan Lund is president of MUND Américas, a market and public policy research group in Mexico. dlund@mundamericas.com