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The facts of the third debate

Verificado 2018 fact-checks the statements the presidential candidates said during the final debate
The facts of the third debate
Third presidential debate - Photo: EL UNIVERSAL
14/06/2018
15:21
Mexico City
Verificado 2018
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The third and final presidential debate took place last Tuesday, June 12, in the southern state of Merida, Yucatán.

Verifcado 2018 has, once more, fact-checked some of the statements made by the presidential candidates:

José Antonio Meade

“I was the Ministry of Social Development and during my administration, 2014-2016, two million of people left poverty. Both from moderate poverty as it is called, and from extreme poverty.”
Verdict: Deceiving

Between 2014 and 2016 the number of people living in poverty did dwindle by almost 2 million, going from 55.3 million in 2014 to 53.4 million in 2016, according to the numbers of the National Council for the Social Development Policy (CONEVAL).

However, saying that this happened in José Antonio Meade's administration is deceiving because the now presidential candidate wasn't appointed as head of this Ministry until August 27, 2015, and he left the charge on September 2016, 07 – that is, he stayed only one year in office.

Moreover, while there was a reduction in poverty numbers, this is only applicable to people living in extreme poverty, which went from 11.4 million in 2014 to 9.4 million in 2016. On the contrary, the number of people in moderate poverty didn't change although it decreased as a percentage of the total population: from 43.9 million (36.6%) in 2014 to 44 million (35.9%) in 2016.

“Andrés Manuel was Mayor of Mexico City. Before he'd taken office, in Mexico City close to 7,000 jobs were being created, with Rosario Robles. After [Obrador] left, with Alejandro Encinas, there were almost 11,000 jobs. When he was Mayor of Mexico City, there were only 226.”

“In Mexico, we had a growth of a little over 2% on average. With Andrés Manuel, the city grew 0.8%”
Verdict: True

IIf we take a look at the number of employees registered before the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), available for consultation in the website of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare, what José Antonio Meade said is true.

During the López Obrador administration in Mexico City – 56 months, from December 2000 to July 2005 – 14, 923 formal jobs were created, which translate to an average of 226 jobs per month for a population – according to the numbers of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) of 2005 – of approximately 8.7 million people.

We'd also have to mention that a national level and during the same period of Lopez Obrador's administration of Mexico City, the average of jobs created was 2,265 for a total population of 103 million people.

It's also true that during the Rosario Robles administration in Mexico Citys – which went from September 1999 to November 2008 – close to 7, 850 jobs per month were created, on average, while in the Encinas administration – from August 2005 to November 2006 – there was an avergae of 11, 665 jobs created per month.

According to data from the Bank of Economic Information of the INEGI, the average annual growth of the GDP of the Federal District from 2000 to 2005 was 0.6% and from 2000 to 2006 it was 0.8%, like the candidate said, at constant prices of 1993.

The growth for the same period of time at a national level was 1.8% from 2000 to 2005, and 2.3% from 2000 to 2006. The data is true although Meade rounded the numbers off.
 


Andrés Manuel López Obrador

“This year, the projection of the [economic] growth of the world is 4% and in Mexico 2%.”
Verdict: Debatable

This could be considered either true or not, depending on whom you ask.

Verificado 2018 checked the information with the World Bank, the International Monterary Fund, Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) and found that the estimates of each institution vary.

According to the IMF on world economic growth, the expectations mentioned by López Obrador do match. The World Bank, however, proposes a 3.1% growth for this year.

In the case of Mexico, the CEPAL and the World Bank use the same percentage Obrador mentioned.

The Ministry of Finance projected an annual growth for Mexico in 2018 between 2 and 3 percent, according to the document General Criteria for Economic Policies.

The CEPAL, up to May 2018, estimated an economic growth for Mexico in 2018 of 2.3%, considering an improvement in world trade.

The Bank of Mexico, in its latest survey on expectations of experts on priate industry economy, calculated a2.3% percent growth in the GDP for 2018.
 


Jaime Rodríguez Calderón

“No one earns a minimum wage in this country.”
Verdict: False

In Mexico there are people who earn a minimum wage (MXN$ 88.36 a day, currently), in fact, there are millions.

According to the INEGI, with data of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), up to the first quarter of 2018, there were 8.64 million people above 15 who earn a minimum daily wage. A little bit over a half of them are women (4.59 million) and the rest men (4. 50 million).

Most of these people – a little over a million – work in the State of Mexico, followed by Veracruz (843,000) and Chiapas (799, 000).

In fact, the amount of employees who only earn the minimum has increased in recent years. During the third quarter of 2008 there were 5.3 million who earned minimum wages.

By types of workers: freelancers comprise over 25%, subordinate employees almost a 20%, and formal subodrinate employees less than 5%.

A study by the Insitute for the Industrial Development and Economic Growth (IDIC) published in December 2017 that of the 3.6 million formal jobs created since 2012, 15.5% offered a minimum wage.
 


Ricardo Anaya

Today, half of the people in the our country who has a job earns less than MXN$ 180 a day. Who can live with dignity like that?”
Veredict: Almost true

A minimum wage in Mexico is equal to MXN$ 88.36.

Someone earning less than MXN$ 180 a day are those earning less than to minimum daily wages.

In Mexico, 52.8 million Mexicans have a job, according to the statistics of the last quarter of 2017, prepared by the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE). Of these, almost 26% – 14.2 million – reported they earn between one and two minimum daily wages (MXN$ 88.36 and MXN$ 176.71).

But to this number, we have to add the number of people who earn up to a minimum daily wage, which are 7.9 million.

Together, these two groups represent 41.88% of the population, that is, 22.1 million.

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